This report, which analyses the recent evolution of the national and international economy, and of that of Castilla y Leon and its provinces, includes estimations for 2018 and forecasts for 2019 related to the economic growth and its components in the Autonomous Community, as well as related to the main variables of the labour market, with growth outlooks for each province in the region.
The report highlights the following:
Economic environment (international and Spanish economies)
Continuing with the trend started in the second half of 2018, the first months of 2019 have seen a loss of momentum in the global economic activity, more noticeable in the Eurozone, due to the persistence of trade tensions and certain sources of uncertainty. In this context, the main international organisms have made a downward revision of their economic forecasts for the coming years. According to the OECD, in 2019, the global economy will grow by 3.3%, 0.2 percentage points (p.p.) less than in November outlook.
Even if it has not been immune to external shocks, the Spanish economy has continued with its current expansionary phase, registering in 2018 a growth of 2.6%, 0.8 p.p. higher than that of the Eurozone. The most recent forecasts point towards a moderated growth, but with rates over 2%.
Economy in Castilla y Léon
In 4Q 2018, Castilla y León GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, and year-on-year GDP growth stood at 2.5%.
Considering its composition, the contribution of the internal demand has been 2.4 p.p., underpinned by the growth in investment and households’ consumption (3.9% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively). With regard to Public Administration’s consumption, it decreased by 0.4%. The contribution of the external sector has been 0.1 p.p., with a fall that has been more moderated in exports (-0.1%) than in imports (-0.2%).
From the point of view of supply, agriculture and construction have posted year-on-year growths higher than in the previous quarter, with production rates of 12.2% and 3.3% respectively, whereas the sector of services grew at a rate of 2.7%.
With regard to the labour market, the number of persons in employment grew by 2.6%, with significant rises in the agricultural sector (6.3%) and in industry (4.7%). The sector of services has presented a growth of 2.4%, although it should be noted that it had registered a 0.7% fall in the previous quarter. At the end of the year, the unemployment rate stood at 11.2% (14.4% in Spain), 2.5 p.p. less than in the previous year.
For the whole 2018, Analistas Económicos de Andalucía forecasts a GDP growth of 2.9%, 0.4 p.p. more than in the previous year. The contribution of the internal demand amounts to 3.0 p.p., underpinned by the growth in investment (4.5%) and both household and Public Administration consumption (2.8% and 1.4%). The contribution of the external component has been negative (-0.1 p.p.), with an increase in imports (0.4%) higher than exports (0.3%). On the side of supply, the growth in agriculture (12.1%) is to be remarked, whereas services and construction have posted rates of around 3%.
For 2019, the outlooks expect a GDP growth of 2.2%, in line with the whole of Spain. From the side of demand, a growth of 2.2% in households’ consumption is expected, with slower growths in Public Administration’s consumption (1.2%) and in investment (3.2%).
From the side of supply, only the agricultural sector would post a decrease (0.3%), and growths are expected for the rest of sectors, ranging from 1.0% in industry to 2.7% in services.
As for the main variables related to the labour market, a growth of 1.7% in employment is expected for the whole 2019, higher than in the previous years, with increases ranging from 1.4% in the sector of services to 2.8% in industry. The unemployment rate would reach 10.1% (13.7% in Spain), 2 p.p. less than that registered in 2018.
Provincial Analysis (Castilla y León provinces)
According to the estimations of the Activity Synthetic Indicator, during the fourth quarter of 2018 all provinces in Castilla y León posted positive growth rates, higher than the regional average in the cases of Valladolid (3.1%) and León (3.0%), although these rates are not strictly comparable.
For the whole 2018, the highest increases have been posted by the provinces of Valladolid (3.3%), Leon (3.2%), Salamanca (3.1%) and Soria (3.1%).
The first outlooks for 2019 suggest that Valladolid (2.8%) and Leon (2.6%) will be again the provinces with highest growths.