This Report, which analyses the recent evolution of the national and international economy, and of that of Castilla y Leon and its provinces, includes forecasts for 2019 and 2020 related to the economic growth and its components in the Autonomous Community, as well as related to the main variables of the labour market, with growth estimations for each province in the region.
The report highlights the following:
Economic environment (international and Spanish economies)
A loss of momentum in the global economic activity has been noticed in recent months, due to the persistence of trade and geopolitical tensions and of certain sources of uncertainty. In this context, the main international organisms have made a downward revision of their economic forecasts for the coming years. According to the OECD, in 2019, the global economy will grow by 2.9%, and by 3.0% in 2020.
Even if it has not been immune to external shocks, the Spanish economy has continued growing at a rate higher than that of the main European economies, although the latest published data reflect a certain slowdown.
Economy in Castilla y Léon
In this context, in 2Q 2019, Castilla y León GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year, 0.2 p.p. less than the growth rate of the previous quarter.
Considering its composition, the contribution of the internal demand has been 3.0 p.p. (3.1 p.p. in the first quarter), underpinned by the growth in investment (3.6%), households’ consumption (2.6%) and Public Administration (2.6%). The contribution of the external sector has been negative (-0.7 p.p.), due to exports falling (-1.1%) more than imports (-0.4%).
From the point of view of supply, construction and services have grown at rates over 3% (3.5% and 3.1% respectively), whereas agriculture and industry have posted a decrease in production of 4.5% and 0.3% respectively.
With regard to the labour market, according to the Labour Force Survey, the number of persons in employment grew by 0.4% year-on-year during the second quarter of the year (0.7% one quarter earlier), due mainly to rises in services (2.1%) and agriculture (5.0%). The labour force increased by 0.2%, reducing the number of unemployed by 1.8%. The unemployment rate stood at 11.8% (14.0% in Spain).
For 2019, Analistas Económicos de Andalucía estimates that the Castilla y Leon economy will reach a growth of 2.2%. From the side of demand, a growth of 2.4% in households’ consumption is expected, with growths in the consumption of Public Administration and investment of 1.8% and 3.2% respectively. From the side of supply, only the agricultural sector would post a decrease (-2.2%), and growths are expected for the rest of sectors, with services (3.0%) and construction (2.8%) outstanding.
For 2020, a growth of 1.9% is expected. On the side of supply, a positive contribution by all sectors is expected, with the service sector to be remarked (2.4%). From the side of demand, an increase of 2.1% is expected for households’ consumption and of 1.5% for public consumption, whereas investment could grow by 2.9%.
As for the main variables related to the labour market, a growth of 0.8% in employment is expected for the whole 2019 (according to the Labour Force Survey), with increases of 1.0% in the sector agriculture and 1.8% in industry. The number of unemployed would decrease by 9.8%, bringing down the unemployment rate by 1.1 p.p. in the year average, to 11.0% (13.7% in Spain). In 2020, the employment is expected to grow by 0.9%, with a fall of 9.3% in the number of unemployed. The unemployment rate for the year average would stand at 10.0% (12.5% in Spain).
Provincial Analysis (Castilla y León provinces)
According to the estimations of the Activity Synthetic Indicator, during the second quarter of 2019 all provinces in Castilla y León posted positive growth rates, higher than the regional average in the cases of Valladolid (2.8%), Segovia (2.8%), Salamanca (2.7%), Avila (2.6%) and Leon (2.5%), although these rates are not strictly comparable.
The outlooks for 2019 suggest that Valladolid (2.6%), Salamanca (2.5%) and Segovia (2.3%) will be again the provinces with highest growths.