The issue number 98 of the quarterly report ‘Previsiones Económicas de Andalucía’ (Economic Forecasts for Andalusia), corresponding to Autumn 2019, prepared, as in previous editions, by Analistas Económicos de Andalucía (research company of Grupo Unicaja Banco) and sponsored by Fundación Unicaja, has been presented today at the Sala Unicaja de Conciertos María Cristina, in Malaga.
The event has been had the attendance of the Head of Social and Cultural Activities of Fundación Unicaja, Rafael Muñoz; the CEO of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, Rafael López del Paso; the Head of Communication, Advertising and External Relations of Fundación Unicaja, Cristina Rico; and the Report Coordinator of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, Felisa Becerra.
The report analyses the recent evolution of domestic and international economies, of Andalusia and its provinces. It also includes outlooks on: i) growth of the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its main components for 2019 and 2020; ii) the evolution of the main variables of the labour market; and iii) growth estimates for each Andalusian province.
The report highlights the following:
Economic Environment (international and Spanish economies)
The last few months have seen a loss of momentum in the global economic activity, due to the persistence of trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as certain sources of uncertainty. In this context, the main international organisms have made a downward revision of their economic forecasts for the coming years. According to the OECD, in 2019, the global economy will grow by 2.9% in 2019 and by 3.0% in 2020.
Even if it has not been immune to external shocks, the Spanish economy has continued growing at a stronger pace than that of the main European economies, although the most recent forecasts point towards a certain slowdown.
In the second quarter of 2019, the Andalusian GDP recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, 0.1 p.p. less than in the previous quarter.
As per its composition, the contribution of the internal demand has been of 1.8 p.p. (2.3 p.p. in the first quarter), underpinned by the growth in investment (1.9%) and expenditure, both of households (1.5%) and of Public Administrations (2.0%). On the other hand, the net external sector has made a positive contribution to regional growth (0.7 p.p.), due to the growth of exports of goods and services (0.2%) and to the fall of imports (1.2%).
From the point of view of supply, the rises in construction (7.0%) and services (3.0%) are to be highlighted, with industry increasing by 1.4%. Agriculture has posted a decrease of 2.1%.
With regard to the labour market, according to the Labour Force Survey, in the second quarter of the year, the number of persons in work is up 3.4% year-on-year, mainly due to the rise in services (2.6%) and construction (11.1%). The workforce has increased by 0.7% year-on-year, reducing the number of unemployed people by 8.2% Unemployment rate stood at 21.0% (14.0% in Spain), 2.1 p.p. lower than the rate of the previous year.
For 2019, Analistas Económicos de Andalucía estimates that the Andalusian economy will reach a growth of 2.3%. From the side of demand, a growth of 1.6% in households’ consumption is expected, with estimated growths in the consumption of Public Administration and investment of 1.9% and 3.0% respectively. From the side of supply, the agricultural sector may drop by 0.5%, whereas growths are expected for the rest of sectors, with services (2.7%) and construction (5.9%) outstanding.
For 2020, a growth of 1.9% is expected. On the side of supply, a positive contribution by all sectors is expected, with the sectors of services (2.1%) and construction (3.1%) to be remarked. From the side of demand, an increase of 1.5% is expected for households’ consumption and of 1.6% for public consumption, whereas investment could grow by 2.5%.
As for the main variables related to the labor market, a growth of 2.9% in employment is expected for the whole 2019, according to the Labour Force Survey. By sectors, the following increases are to be highlighted: 2.4% in services, 3.4% in industry and 8.7% in construction. The number of unemployed would decrease by 9.2% and the unemployment rate would stand at 20.8% for 2019, 2.1 p.p. less than that registered in 2018. An increase of 2.0% in employment is expected in 2020, whereas the number of unemployed people may decrease by 7.4%, making the unemployment rate for the year average to stand at 19.3% (12.5% in Spain).
Provincial analysis (Andalusia)
In the second quarter of 2019, according to the estimates of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, all the Andalusian provinces have posted increases in production, higher than the regional average in the cases of Huelva (2.8%), Malaga (2.8%), Cadiz (2.7%), Sevilla (2.7%), Almeria (2.6%) and Granada (2.6%).
The estimates for 2019 indicate that again Malaga (2.6%), Huelva (2.5%), Sevilla (2.4%) and Cadiz (2.4%) will be the provinces with highest growths.