This report, which analyses the recent evolution of the national and international economy, and of that of Castilla y Leon and its provinces, includes forecasts for 2019 related to the economic growth in the Autonomous Community, as well as related to the main variables of the labour market, with growth outlooks and estimations for each province in the region.
The report highlights the following:
The first half of 2019 has seen a loss of momentum in the global economic activity, more noticeable in the Eurozone, due to the persistence of trade tensions and certain sources of uncertainty. In this context, the main international organisms have made a downward revision of their economic forecasts for the coming years. According to the OECD, in 2019, the global economy will grow by 3.2%, 0.3 percentage points (p.p.) less than in the previous outlook.
Even if it has not been immune to external shocks, the Spanish economy has continued growing at a rate higher than that of the Eurozone. The most recent forecasts point towards a moderated growth, but with rates over 2%.
Economy in Castilla y Léon
In 1Q 2019, Castilla y León GDP grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, and year-on-year GDP growth stood at 2.6%, 0.1 p.p. higher than in 4Q2018.
Considering its composition, the contribution of the internal demand has been 3.1 p.p. (2.4 p.p. in the previous quarter), underpinned by the growth in investment (3.7%) and households’ consumption (2.9% and 2.7%, respectively). The contribution of the external sector has been negative (-0.6 p.p.), due to exports falling (-0.7%) more than imports (-0.1%).
From the point of view of supply, construction and services have grown at rates over 3% (3.4% and 3.3% respectively), whereas industry grew at a rate of 1.0%.
With regard to the labour market, according to the Labour Force Survey, the number of persons in employment grew by 0.7% year-on-year during the first quarter of the year (2.6% one quarter earlier), due mainly to rises in services (2.7%) and agriculture (1.2%). The labour force fell by 1.0%, reducing the number of unemployed by 11.7%. The unemployment rate stood at 12.4% (14.7% in Spain), 1.5 p.p. less than in the previous year.
For 2019, the outlooks for Castilla y León expect a GDP growth of 2.2%. From the side of supply, only the agricultural sector would post a decrease (-0.9%), and growths are expected for the rest of sectors, ranging from 0.8% in industry to 2.8% in services. From the side of demand, a growth of 2.3% in households’ consumption is expected, with slower growths in investment, although increasing by 3.2%. The growth in Public Administration’s consumption would stand at 1.4%.
As for the main variables related to the labour market, a growth of 1.4% in employment is expected for the whole 2019, with increases ranging from 1.8% in the sector of services to 0.3% in industry. The number of unemployed would decrease by 15.6%, bringing down the unemployment rate by 1.8 p.p. in the year, to 10.3% (13.7% in Spain).
Provincial Analysis (Castilla y León provinces)
According to the estimations of the Activity Synthetic Indicator, during the first quarter of 2019 all provinces in Castilla y León posted positive growth rates, higher than the regional average in the cases of Salamanca (2.9%), Valladolid (2.9%) and Segovia (2.8%), although these rates are not strictly comparable. Growth in Soria and Leon has been similar to the average of Castilla y León.
The outlooks for 2019 suggest that Valladolid (2.6%), Salamanca (2.5%), Segovia (2.3%) and Leon (2.3%) will be again the provinces with highest growths. Soria could grow at the same rate as the regional average (2.2%).