The issue number 99 of the quarterly report ‘Previsiones Económicas de Andalucía’ (Economic Forecasts for Andalusia), corresponding to Winter 2019/20, prepared, as in previous editions, by Analistas Económicos de Andalucía (research company of Grupo Unicaja) has been presented today at the Sala Unicaja de Conciertos María Cristina, in Malaga.
The event has been attended by the Head of Social and Cultural Activities of Fundación Unicaja, Rafael Muñoz; the CEO of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, Rafael López del Paso; the Head of Communication, Advertising and External Relations of Fundación Unicaja, Cristina Rico; and the Report Coordinator of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, Felisa Becerra.
The report analyses the recent evolution of domestic and international economies, of Andalusia and its provinces. It also includes estimations and outlooks on: i) growth of the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its main components for 2019 and 2020; ii) the evolution of the main variables of the labour market; and iii) growth of the economic activity for each Andalusian province.
The report highlights the following:
Economic Environment (international and Spanish economies)
2019 has seen a loss of momentum in the growth of the global economic activity, which has led the main international organisms to make a downward revision of their growth forecasts for the coming years. However, it is estimated that the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have grown by around 3% in 2019.
Even if it has been affected by the worsened external environment, the Spanish economy has continued with its growth phase, presenting an increase in the production of 2%.
In the third quarter of 2019, the Andalusian GDP recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.4%. Production increased by 2.1% year-on-year.
As per its composition, from the point of view of demand, the contribution of the internal components has been of 1.6 p.p. (1.2 p.p. in the second quarter). The household expenditure has increased by 1.2% year-on-year (0.6 p.p. more than in the previous quarter), whereas the expenditure of Public Administrations has grown by 2.2% and investment, by 1.9%. The contribution of the external sector has been of 0.5 p.p. (1.0 p.p. in the previous quarter), with a growth in imports of 2.4% and of 3.6% in exports.
From the point of view of supply, the industrial sector has grown at a higher pace than in the previous quarter (2.6% versus 1.8% in the second quarter, in year-on-year terms). Construction and services have registered variation rates in production of 4.3% and 2.5% respectively.
With regard to the labour market, in the third quarter of 2019, the number of persons in work is up 2.2% year-on-year (3.4% in the second quarter), mainly due to the rise in industry (8.0%) and construction (7.3%). The number of unemployed people is down 3.6%, with unemployment rate standing at 21.8% (13.9% in Spain), 1.0 p.p. lower than the rate of the previous year.
For the whole 2019, Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, without the data of the fourth quarter, estimates that the Andalusian economy will reach a growth of 2.1%. A growth of 1.2% in private consumption is expected, with estimated growths in the expenditure of Public Administration and investment of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively. From the side of supply, the non-agricultural sector would have reached at rates ranging from 2.0% in industry to 5.1% in construction.
As for the main variables related to the labor market, a growth of 2.9% in employment is expected, with higher rates in construction (7.5%) and industry (5.6%). The number of unemployed would decrease by 7.7% and the unemployment rate would stand at 21.1% for 2019, 1.9 p.p. less than that registered in 2018.
For 2020, a GDP growth of 1.7% is expected. On the side of supply, a positive contribution by all sectors is expected, at rates ranging from 0.7% in the agricultural sector to 2.7% in construction. From the side of demand, an increase in consumption is expected, both for households (1.3%) and for the public sector (1.5%), whereas investment could grow by 2.3%. With regard to the labour market, a growth of 1.9% in employment is estimated, with the unemployment rate standing at 19.8% as year average, 1.3 p.p. below that estimated in 2019.
Provincial analysis (Andalusia)
In the third quarter of 2019, according to the estimates of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, all the Andalusian provinces have posted increases in production, higher than the regional average in the cases of Sevilla (2.3%), Malaga (2.3%), Cadiz (2.2%) and Almeria (2.2%). In the whole 2019, the provinces of Malaga (2.4%), Sevilla (2.3%), Huelva (2.3%) and Cadiz (2.2%) would have registered a growth higher than the whole of Andalusia.
The estimates for 2020 point towards continuity in the growth path, although at rates lower than in the previous year. The outlooks place the growth of Cadiz (2.0%), Sevilla (1.9%), Malaga (1.9%) and Huelva (1.8%) over the Andalusian average.